On the Operational Behavior and Reliability of a Multicomponent, Stochastically Failing, Repairable System

Ilkka Virtanen

Summary

This study examines a system with a given basic structure. The behaviour of the system depends on several stochastic factors. Thus, the time between failures of the components of the system, the repair time of the components and the time spent waiting for repair facilities cannot with certainty be known in advance. All that is known is the probability laws governing these values. Examinations are carried out on the basis of systems theory principles, using a stochastic process model. In this way is discovered the behaviour of the system and the dependence of the reliability it achieves on, on the one hand, a particular part of the structure of the system, and, on the other, the repair policy of the system.

At the beginning of the study, in Chapter 2, there is a survey of the basic concepts of reliability theory. The pointwise availability of the system is chosen as the value which measures its reliability and this is shown to be a good representation of its operational ability. Chapter 2 goes on to examine the various possible types to describe the distribution of a random variable and the connections between these functions. From the point of view of this study the principal function is seen to be the intensity function or rate function. Distributions are identified on the basis of the failure, repair or waiting rate (depending on the random variable in question). At the end of the chapter there is an account of the most common distribution types in reliability theory and their principal characteristics. Finally, by means of individual distributions, a general distribution is arrived at, which covers (by a suitable rate function choice) all the known distributions that fulfill the regularity conditions.

In Chapter 3, a detailed description of the system is made and assumptions regarding the random variables of the system are introduced. The system consists of two classes of components, i.e. of two subsystems S1 and S2. The subsystem S1 contains M identical redundantly-connected components while S2 is composed of N independent (,in general, different) components connected in series. Components in S1 are assumed to fail according to some general distribution (the failure rate of components is an arbitrary function of time) while in S2 the components have constant failure rates, i.e. the time between failures for a S2-component is exponentially distributed, each component in S2 has a failure rate of its own. A failed component has to wait for repair facilities, and the waiting time has some general distribution such that each component has a distribution of its own. All the repair time distributions in the system are also governed by general probability laws.

The operational behaviour and reliability properties of the system are studied under four different conditions. The conditions are specified by two policy variables: the type of redundancy and the policy to be followed in the system repair. Two types of redundancy are considered. Chapter 4 illustrates parallel redundancy in S1: all the M components in S1 start operating together as soon as the system is put into operation and the system fails due to S1 only when all the M components in S1 fail. In Chapter 5 stand-by redundancy is considered: out of the M components in S1 only one takes part in the operation and the rest are kept as stand-by arrangement; the system is assumed to switch over to the next component automatically when the operating component fails.

After a complete failure of S1 all the M failed components are repaired; S2 is not touched. With regard to system failure due to the failure of an S2-component two different repair policies are considered: 1. Opportunistic policy: along with the repair of the failed component in S2, repair of all the failures components in S1 is also completed, and 2. Minimum policy: repair of the failed component in S2 is carried out and the components in S1 are left unattended.

Thus the treatment of the system is divided into four sections. Section 4.1 deals with the system with parallel redundancy in S1 and with minimum repair policy, in Section 4.2 there is parallel redundancy in S1 and opportunistic repair policy, in 5.1 stand-by redundancy and minimum policy, and in 5.2 stand-by redundancy and opportunistic policy. In each case a method based on supplementary variables and Laplace transforms is used to formulate a mathematical model for the system. The first step in the formulaiton of the model is to specify the set of states for the system. Then the supplementary variable technique is used to obtain the model's state equations, which consist of simultaneous partial differential-difference equations with their boundary conditions. With the help of Laplace transforms and generating functions both transient and steady-state solutions for these state equations are found. From these solutions the steady-state availability and the Laplace transform of the transient state availability are derived.

Furthermore it is shown that the steady-state solutions (and therefore the steady-state availability) are independent of the type of waiting time and repair time distributions and in their expressions only the expected values of these distributions appear. It is also shown that the steady-state is achieved under quite general conditions (the expected values of the distributions must exist) and that the solutions for the steady-state can be found without any exact knowledge about the distribution of the system.

In Chapter 6 there is a detailed analysis of the availability expressions obtained and, in particular, a comparison of the availabilities obtained in different circumstances. In this way an understanding is obtained of the influence of, on the one hand, the structure of subsystems S1 (types of redundancy in components) and, on the other, the repair policy on the reliability characteristics of the system. It is shown that in the case of stand-by redundancy availability is always greater than with parallel redundancy and that the opportunistic repair policy produces greater availability than the minimum policy. Exact expressions are calculated for the availability differences. Finally there is an examination of the influence of the number of redundant components in subsystem S1 on availability.

(Licentiate thesis. Publications of The Turku School of Economics, Series A I - 4:1977, 117 p.)